Having last won the tournament in 1990, Algeria, who come into the tournament as the number 1 ranked team in Africa have already been earmarked by many observers as favorites for the 30th edition of the Africa Cup of Nations.
With less than 24 hours to kick off, Jonah Byakutaga breaks down the 4 groups and goes a step further in predicting the likely group winners, losers and also look at a few teams that might surprise the continent.
Group A: Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Gabon, Burkina Faso
The 2012 co-hosts Gabon and Equatorial Guinea did not qualify for the 2013 edition of the tournament in South Africa, but quarter final appearances in 2012 will be an inspiration. The former were ejected after a penalty shoot-out with Mali while Equatorial Guinea was humbled 3-0 by Ivory Coast.
Gabon led by prolific Borussia Dortmund forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang picked 4 points off the Burkinabe in topping their qualifying group and together with Cameroon, South Africa and Tunisia were the only unbeaten sides in the qualifying rounds. They could most likely advance as group winners together with the 2013 losing finalist Burkina Faso.
Equatorial Guinea despite hosting the tournament, have a new coach in Esteban Becker, who led the women’s national team to Africa Cup glory in 2012, but with only 2 weeks to get his troops ready, might just fall short. Congo led by the massively experienced Claude le Roy will make up the numbers in this group.
Verdict: Gabon and Burkina Faso to advance.
Group B: Zambia, DR Congo, Cape Verde, Tunisia
2012 champions Zambia finally showed long standing captain Christopher Katongo the exit and with him go Zambia’s chances of getting out of this group. Katongo might not have age on his side, but with only 8 players left from the 2012 conquering side, his experience and influence would have been priceless at the tournament. Mamelodi Sundowns goal keeper Kennedy Mweene, new captain Rainford Kalaba, and Southampton forward Emmanuel Mayuka will shoulder the nation’s dim hopes.
Cape Verde topped their qualifying group that included Zambia and could afford to lose their final game away to the 2012 champions as they had already secured qualification and top spot with a game to spare. They should still finish above the Zambians but could fall short of toppling DR Congo.
The Leopards might have only qualified as the best 3rd placed team, albeit in a group that had Ivory Coast and Cameroon, but led by Dynamo Kiev’s Dieumerci Mbokani, Crystal Palace danger man Yannick Bolasie and West Brom’s Youssuf Mulumbu, the Lingala kings will be a hard nut to crack. The availability of star forward Tresor Mputu might have had them an even closer second to Tunisia. A narrow toss-up between the Islanders and the Congolese for second place might be won by the latter.
The 2004 champions, Tunisia made easy work of a group that included record 7 time champions Egypt, giants Senegal and Botswana. Coached by the well-travelled Belgian Georges Leekens, the 3rd ranked team on the continent arrives as one of the form sides alongside Algeria and South Africa and remains my dark horses of the tournament.
Verdict: Tunisia and DR Congo to advance.
Group C: Algeria, Ghana, South Africa, Senegal
Enter the calculator, compass and dictionary; such is the complexity of this group and without question the ‘Group of Death’. A thankless task picking two out of this lot but I will go with Africa’s number 1 ranked team and favorites Algeria and South Africa, the latter perhaps more out of sentiment as it was home for 6 years.
Many will question why not Ghana who finished 4th in both the 2012 and 2013 editions, but having watched them at close quarters as they succumbed to the Uganda Cranes in the qualifying rounds, I’m convinced their backline led by the erratic pair of John Boye and Jonathan Mensah will not withstand the attacking force of Algeria and South Africa. Add to the reported knocks suffered by skipper Gyan Asamoah and his deputy Agyemang Badu, a worry that forced Coach Avram Grant to abandon their remaining pre-tournament friendlies and you get your answer. The fitness of the two will be paramount to Ghana’s chances of progressing.
South Africa in my eyes are the most improved team on the continent and having edged out the defending champions Nigeria during the qualification stage, Shakes Mashaba’s Boys will be unburdened by the ‘underdogs’ tag and will hence be unafraid of anyone. The unfortunate death of skipper Senzo Meyiwa could play a unifying role and just like the Chipolopolo of Zambia were inspired by the 1993 plane crash to the 2012 title, Bafana Bafana could ride on a wave of emotion to progress. Senegal’s chances diminish with the untimely injuries to Southampton’s Sadio Mane and West ham’s Diafra Sakho.
Verdict: Algeria and South Africa to advance.
Group D: Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Guinea, Mali
If there was anything like a ‘joint Group of Death’, then this would be it. An extremely challenging group littered with West African derbies will provide stern tests for any side in this group harboring dreams of being champion.
Cameroon did take 4 points off the Ivory Coast in the qualifiers, in what could have been a dress rehearsal for the tournament proper, but the injuries to captain Stephen Mbia and defensive stalwart Nicolas Nkoulou could tip the scales in favor of a hungry Ivory Coast side whose ‘Golden Generation’ is slowly coming to a fruitless end.
Now skippered by African footballer of the year Yaya Toure and supported by his new Manchester City team mate Wilfried Bony, AS Roma’s Gervinho and the ever green Salomon Kalou, Ivory Coast will look to improve on their quarter final finish at the previous edition in South Africa. Mali did finish 3rd in the last two editions, but could probably only be good for a 3rd place finish in a very tightly contested group.
Verdict: Ivory Coast and Cameroon to advance.
As we head off to Bata for the opening fixture between hosts Equatorial Guinea and Congo, many will hope that fears of the Ebola outbreak and concerns about shortage of accommodation only hover in the background as football takes center stage. Let the action begin