Making sporting predictions is as easy as ice-skating at your very first attempt. You fall, slowly pick yourself off the deck and go again not afraid to keep trying with the hope that you are close to getting it right.
After much deliberation, I figured even the great Pele hardly gets it right so why not have a go. As the Africa Cup of Nations kicks off in less than 10 days, one nation, in Equatorial Guinea will be rubbing their hands in glee.
They get a second bite of the cherry and contest as the hosts for the 2nd time in 3 years, (they were co-hosts alongside Gabon in 2012).
The beauty, or may I say the awkwardness about this, is they should have been, like our own Uganda Cranes, enjoying the tournament from the comfort of their homes, after being disqualified for fielding an ineligible player in their preliminary round qualifiers against Mauritania. Instead, they won a lottery and bounced back as hosts after Morocco’s eventual withdrawal.
Whether our own Cranes would have flown past them had they not been kicked out is a story for another day. Entering the tournament properly, I see one team standing head and shoulders above the rest; ALGERIA.
Despite not winning a single game at the previous AFCON 2013 edition in South Africa, a run that included a 1-0 loss to Tunisia and a humbling 2-0 loss to Togo, Algeria restored some bit of pride holding the much fancied Ivory Coast 2-2 in their final game although they still bowed out bottom of the group with a single point.
Fast forward a few months, Algeria edged the 2013 AFCON finalists Burkina Faso on away goals to qualify for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil and their journey to the top of African football began there.
Algeria went on to finish 2nd behind Belgium who garnered maximum points in Group H. Their results included a narrow 2-1 loss to Belgium, a 4-2 win over South Korea and a thrilling 1-1 draw with the much fancied Fabio Capello-led Russian team.
Their reward was a crack at the soon-to-be-crowned champions Germany, where Algeria went on to bravely lose 2-1 after extra time.
All the 3 goals were scored in the added 30 minutes, with a late Mesut Ozil goal proving to be the match winner. That result continued their mini revival and Algeria went on to win 5 out 6 in their qualifying campaign defeating Ethiopia and Malawi over both legs and losing their final tie against Mali, a dead rubber after having already secured qualification.
Led by wily Frenchman Christian Gourcuff, the number 1 ranked team on the continent, will arrive at the tournament with one of Africa’s standout goalkeepers in American based Rais Mbolhi who had an outstanding world cup.
A back-line led by the ever green captain Madjid Bougherra and Qatar based Rafik Halliche was only breached 4 times in the qualifiers, 2 of those by a second string already qualified Algerian side in the final game away to Mali.
Midfield appears to be their strength and led by the newly crowned BBC African footballer of the year Yacine Brahimi, they will create chances at will.
The FC Porto man scored once at the world cup and twice in the qualifying campaign but his electric form for his new Portuguese side, that included a hat trick in his first EUFA champions league appearance for his club makes him the one to watch.
Tottenhum youngster Nabil Bentaleb and Leicester City winger Riyad Mahrez will provide able support. Upfront the quick pair of Sporting Lisbon’s Islam Slimani, scorer of 2 goals at the world cup, and Dynamo Zagreb’s El Arabi Soudani will be a handful for many defenses. However, the untimely loss of Newcastle’s Mehdi Abeid to injury will have robbed the side of bite and stability in their midfield.
Their path to the trophy starts in the ‘group of death’, Group C against giants Ghana, the much improved Senegal and the exciting and rejuvenated South African side led by the wise head Shakes Mashaba.
Survive that and they could potentially meet one of Ivory Coast or Cameroon in the quarter finals. Difficult as that might seem, Algeria’s lightening quick game could unlock the burly West African sides.
A potential final against Yaya Toure’s Ivory Coast would be fitting in my eyes.
The Rest: Ghana and Ivory Coast will of course have a say but then again, the two could square off at the quarter final stage should one finish top and the other second in their respective groups.
My dark horses of the tournament are Tunisia. Having topped a qualifying group that had Senegal, Egypt and Botswana, they will be grateful to be in a simpler group B that includes new kids on the block-Cape Verde, 2012 champions Zambia and DR Congo compared to groups C and D.
Should they top their group, a quarter final against the 2nd placed team from Group A should be a fairly manageable task and there after good fortune could come into play. Again, I could be completely wrong, but one thing is for sure, we will have a new champion come the 8th of February, 2015.